What To Expect With the Stock Market If Harris Wins the Presidency
Written by
John Csiszar
Edited by
Molly Sullivan
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The tongue-in-cheek answer to what to expect if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency is “the unexpected.” This is because although elections can create market volatility, they rarely dictate the longer-term outcome of stock prices. According to the chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, Sam Stovall, the stock market tends to move up regardless of who is in the White House. Since 1945, for example, the market has averaged an 11% annual return under Democratic presidents and a 7% annual return under Republicans, a figure that includes the decline under George W. Bush during the Great Recession of 2008-09.
History aside, however, there are indications as to what may be in store at least over the short run if Harris does ascend to the nation’s highest office. Here’s what to be on the lookout for.
Bonds Rallying
As Gary Dugan, CEO of The Global CIO Office, told AsianInvestor, a Harris victory would likely bring fewer surprises on the inflation front, clearing the way for the Federal Reserve to continue its campaign of lowering interest rates that began in September 2024. As falling interest rates prop up bond prices, bonds are likely to continue rallying under at least the beginning of a potential Harris presidency.
A survey of Bloomberg terminal subscribers suggests that investors are more likely to keep their bond positions under a Harris presidency than under a second Donald Trump presidency, which should provide further support for bond prices. According to the data, nearly half of respondents would reduce their bond allocation under a Trump presidency, but only 23% would if Harris were to claim the White House.
Gains in Renewables and Housing
The renewable energy and housing industries would appear to be clear beneficiaries of a Harris presidency. Harris has consistently supported green and renewable energy mandates and projects, and that is likely to continue under her possible presidency. She has also recently been vociferous about dramatically increasing the number of homes built in America and providing a subsidy for first-time homebuyers.
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Rise in Rate-Sensitive Stocks
If interest rates continue to fall under a Harris presidency, rate-sensitive industries like banking and real estate may also see gains. As the Fed seems destined to continue cutting rates regardless of who wins the White House in November, this may be more of a macroeconomic bet than one on Harris specifically. Nonetheless, if Harris wins the election, she is likely to benefit from a backdrop of falling rates, as will rate-sensitive industries. According to analysts Ed Yardeni and Eric Wallerstein, other industries that may benefit from falling rates include materials, industrials and utilities.
Relief for Industries With Ties to China
One of the hallmarks of Trump’s presidency was his hardline stance on China, and he seems destined to double down on his policy of blanket tariffs if he wins a second term. While Joe Biden’s presidency, during which Harris has served as vice president, has seen stiff tariffs on China as well, they have been more targeted than Trump’s blanket policy. As a result, Chinese stocks, and any American companies with strong ties to China, may see something of a relief rally if Harris wins the presidency.
Stocks Continuing Higher Overall
As hinted at in the introduction, at the end of the day, the stock market tends to move higher regardless of who the president is. While the market likes to make violent short-term movements based on the motions surrounding events like elections or proposed legislation, over time, these ups and downs tend to even out as the market steadily marches higher. While you may wish to shift your stock/bond allocation a bit under a Harris presidency, or perhaps increase your exposure to rate-sensitive sectors or industries like renewables, there’s no need to make sweeping changes to your investments. As legendary billionaire investor Warren Buffett likes to say, you should never bet against America, and the best option for most investors is to simply continue investing consistently in a low-cost index fund.
Editor’s note on election coverage: GOBankingRates is nonpartisan and strives to cover all aspects of the economy objectively and present balanced reports on politically focused finance stories. For more coverage on this topic, please check out What To Expect With the Stock Market If Trump Wins the Presidency.
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