5 States That Would Likely Benefit the Most Economically From a Second Trump Presidency

Some states may have more to gain than others if Donald Trump returns to office. Exactly what he’ll do if he wins the election is unknown, but past actions and current campaign promises offer possible hints.

This could sway undecided voters in certain states toward Trump, if they believe he’ll strengthen their local economy. Issues like job creation, lower taxes and stricter immigration laws are hot topics this election season — and even more so in certain states.

Ryan Waite, vice president of public affairs at Think Big, shared his thoughts on five states that could realize strong economic benefits if Trump is reelected.

Here’s a look at his top picks and why he believes these states may have the most at stake.

According to Waite, Texas could “benefit from Trump’s pro-energy policies, particularly in oil and gas.”

This makes sense, as the Lonestar State is the top crude oil- and natural gas-producing state in the country, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

“Deregulation and support for fossil fuel industries would likely boost the state’s economy and job market,” he said. “The state’s large oil and gas sector would likely thrive under policies favoring energy independence and reduced environmental regulations.”

In Texas, a longtime Republican stronghold, Trump received 52.1% of votes in the 2020 election. In the 2016 presidential election, he earned 52.5% of votes.

“Florida might see growth due to favorable tax policies and tourism support,” Waite said. “Lower taxes and deregulation can attract businesses and boost the state’s vibrant tourism industry.”

For example, Trump has proposed eliminating federal taxes on tips. However, it’s worth noting that Kamala Harris has also called to do the same thing.

“Trump’s tax cuts and business-friendly policies can enhance Florida’s appeal as a destination for both tourists and relocating businesses,” Waite said.

In 2020, Trump won Florida with 51.2% of the vote. A close call, he received just 49% of the votes in the 2016 presidential election.

“Ohio could benefit from manufacturing incentives and trade policies aimed at protecting American jobs,” Waite said. “Policies promoting domestic production and reducing trade deficits would support local industries.”

In fact, one of the promises listed on Trump’s campaign site touts his stance on domestic production. “Stop outsourcing, and turn the United States into a manufacturing powerhouse,” it reads.

According to Waite, this focus on manufacturing and trade deals could benefit American producers. He said it could also “stimulate job growth and economic development in Ohio.”

Trump won 53.3% of the Ohio vote in the 2020 presidential election. He received 51.8% of the vote in 2016.

Given the voting history in this state, Trump likely doesn’t need any help winning it again. However, it can’t hurt that his running mate, JD Vance, is currently an Ohio senator.

Another of Trump’s campaign promises centers on energy production. His website states, “Make America the dominant energy producer in the world, by far.” Pennsylvania is the second-largest natural gas producer in the U.S. — behind only Texas — according to the EIA.

“Pennsylvania, with its significant coal and natural gas industries, might benefit from energy policies that support fossil fuels and infrastructure development,” Waite said. “Policies encouraging energy production and infrastructure investments can lead to job creation and economic growth in the state.”

Trump lost Pennsylvania in 2020, receiving just 48.8% of the vote. He garnered just 48.6% of votes in 2016 but managed to score a narrow win.

“Arizona could benefit from Trump’s border security policies and trade initiatives with Mexico,” Waite said. 

For example, in fiscal 2024 year to date, the U.S. Border Patrol southwest land border encounters have totaled 428,876 in Tucson and 48,175 in Yuma, according to the U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

“Enhanced border infrastructure and trade agreements can stimulate local economies,” he said. “Strengthening trade ties with Mexico and investing in border infrastructure can boost Arizona’s economy, particularly in sectors like logistics and manufacturing.”

Trump received just 49% of the Arizona vote in 2020, causing him to lose the state. He won by a thin margin in 2016, garnering 49% of the vote.

“It is interesting to note that most of the states that would benefit from a Trump administration are also the states that will be in play this November,” Waite said.

He said that is probably not a coincidence. Only time will tell if voters in these swing states believe putting Trump back in office is truly better for the economy.

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